Lonnie Lepp
Retired after 26 years of martial arts teaching, now playing poker, and tinkering with computers.
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- @JenLepp Call LonnieOct 12, 11 from web Reply, Retweet, Favorite
- still hot on my porch
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- my cat is tired of reading. twitpic test http://twitpic.com/5min39
- Recovered from Hard Drive Failure, New Install of WIN7. Putting Apps in as we speak.
- The days are becoming a bit overwhelmingJun 28, 11 from web Reply, Retweet, Favorite
- @ShelbyBelfast Your welcome, Ma'am
- @ShelbyBelfast No one succeeds alone. Both of you deserve respect and success. Each in our own way make a difference. Just saying.
- @ShelbyBelfast So true. Can I quote you on that, "You can't fix crazy, dumb, or selfish."
- @ShelbyBelfast The relationship between our family and yours is new. I try not to make to many presumptions. Glad to see ya'll when we can
- @ShelbyBelfast Mismangement is all to common, Glad Mark is "movin' on up".
- @ShelbyBelfast @fightshark_com Shelby can be proud of yourself too, Seems like you have made a huge contribution to his success.
- @ShelbyBelfast Big Brains and Kind Heart. Body beautiful, dated & married them multi times. Happier than ever with Jen.
- @ShelbyBelfast If ya come into Austin. Think about letting us know. Perhaps we can all do lunch? Jacob would be thrilled.
- @ShelbyBelfast @JenLepp Keneling is awesome. Greyhounds grow up in them. Most grey's see kennels as " safe home"
- @fightshark_com wrote about being in Russia. http://mmaweekly.com/mark-the-fight-shark-miller-fight-blog-after-the-fight-after-the-victoryJun 07, 11 from web Reply, Retweet, Favorite
- @kennyflorian Hey Now. That sounds remarkably like how I aspire to play poker. Keep up the good work.
- There is nothing that can adequately describe walking a drunk 26 year old rough neck home.Jun 05, 11 from web Reply, Retweet, Favorite
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Honors:Caring in Action Award (Austin American Statesman), Lifetime Achievement in Martial Arts Award (USA Taekwondo)
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- Apr 10, 11
> Articles > Probability & Odds - Introduction Probability & Odds - IntroductionRank: Poker is very much a game of deception and intuition. However, math also has an important role since there are cards that are common to everyone’s hands. In many situations you can know your opponent’s hand with near-certainty, and you can use probability to check if you should fold or call his bet. This decision is made by calculating the pot odds, as you will see in the pot odds video.
First, here are some common numbers and percentages in Texas Holdem:
Chances of your two pocket cards
- The chances of getting a pocket pair are 5.8%, or one out of every 17 hands
- The chances of getting a pair of AA are 0.45%, or one out of every 222 hands
- The chances of getting two suited cards are 24%, or one out of every 4 hands
- The chances of getting any AK suited are 0.3%, or one out of every 333 handsChances on the Flop
- The chances of getting a pair are 29%, or one out of 3.5 hands
- The chances of getting two pairs are 2%, or one out of 50 hands
- The chances of getting trips are 1.35%, or one out of 74 hands
- The chances of getting a set when you have a pocket pair are 10.8%, or one out of 9 hands
- The chances of getting a set or better when you have a pocket pair are 11.8%, or one out of 8 hands
- The chances of getting a Flush when you’re suited are 0.84%, or one out of 120 hands
- The chances of getting a Flush draw when you’re suited are 10.9%, or one out of 9 handsChances on the Turn
- The chances of getting a Straight when you have an open ended Straight draw are 17% or one out of 6 hands. If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 32%.
- The chances of getting a Flush when you have a Flush draw are 19%, or one out of 5 hands. If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 35%.
- The chances of getting a Full House when you have two pairs are 9%, or one out of 11 hands. If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 17%.
- The chances of getting a Full House if you have a set are 15%, or one out of 6.6 hands. If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 33%.Below is my edited version of the above from
Chances of your two pocket cards being
Pair - a pocket pair are 5.80%, or 1 in 17 or 1:16
AA - a pair of AA are 0.45%, or 1 in 223 or 1: 222Suited - suited cards are 24%, or 1 in 4 or 1:3
AKs- AK suited are 0.3%, or 1 in 334 or 1: 333 handsStill being editedChances on the Flop of getting
- pair are 29%, or one out of 3.5 hands
- two pairs are 2%, or one out of 50 hands
- trips are 1.35%, or one out of 74 hands
- a set when you have a pocket pair are 10.8%, or one out of 9 hands
- a set or better when you have a pocket pair are 11.8%, or one out of 8 hands
- a Flush when you’re suited are 0.84%, or one out of 120 hands
- a Flush draw when you’re suited are 10.9%, or one out of 9 handsChances on the Turn of getting
- getting a Straight when you have an open ended Straight draw are 17% or one out of 6 hands.If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 32%.
- a Flush when you have a Flush draw are 19%, or one out of 5 hands.
If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 35%.
- a Full House when you have two pairs are 9%, or one out of 11 hands.If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 17%.
- a Full House if you have a set are 15%, or one out of 6.6 hands.If you go all the way to the River, your chances increase to 33%.
Lonnie Lepp
[email protected] - Mar 11, 11
http://www.pokerology.com/poker-school/texas-holdem/beginner/math-and-statistics/
which hands have the advantage in certain situations
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- Mar 08, 11
Bankroll management is the number one priority in my poker career.
The bankroll is the bullets. The game is the battlefield. The stategy and tatics used daily are the weapons.
Need all three to make it.
Here's a good article on Bankroll Management.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/Bankroll-Management-101.html
Note that the added imphasis is mine in the folling article.
'For cash game players, the minimum you should have in your bankroll is 20 buy-ins for the level you want to play. If you get to 15 buy-ins or less, you need to move back down to the previous level until you get back over 20 buy-ins. One buy-in is considered 100 big blinds. For instance, at .01/.02, a buy-in is $2 (100 x .02 = $2) and that is why .01/.02 is called $2NL. So, for a specific example, let's say you deposit $50 and plan to use good bankroll management, moving up and moving down as needed. You must then start out playing $2NL until you can work your way up to $100. When you get to $100 you can then start playing $5NL. If things aren't going well at $5NL and your bankroll gets back down to $75 (15 buy-ins), then you must drop back down to $2NL and grind your way back up. Moving back down is one of the hardest things to do, but for proper bankroll management it's probably the most important thing. Just remember that even the best players need to move down occasionally and the only people that never move down are the ones that eventually go broke.
A lot of people start their poker careers playing Sit & Go tournaments (SNG). Most people have seen poker tournaments on television so that is where they start. I also think there is a misconception that SNGs are an easy way to grind up a bankroll. In fact, tournaments in general have more variance then cash games. Not that SNGs aren't a good option for the micro player, but with the variance in mind, you should have a larger bankroll to absorb the swings. I think a minimum of 40 buy-ins is sufficient, so if you start with $50 again, you should be playing $1 buy-in SNGs until you get up to at least $80, then move up to the $2 tournies. Again, be sure to move back down if you are having trouble, but definitely if you get down to 30 buy-ins. Multi-table tournaments (MTTs) are going to be the hardest games to grind a bankroll with for a couple of reasons. First, the variance can be brutal, often going a very long time between big cashes. Second, there just aren't that many MTTs at the micro level, so trying to grind up with a small bankroll can seem impossible. However, there are options. There are often satellite tournaments that the micro player can enter with very low buy-ins. These will pay out tournament tickets instead of cash, but the tickets can be just as good as a big cash score. One word of caution if you choose to play satellites though. You will sometimes be tempted to use your ticket to play in the big tournament. Proper bankroll management says no! Take the tournament money and use it to play more games within your bankroll. Another tournament topic to touch on is re-buy tournaments. Keep in mind that you should price in a minimum of 1 re-buy and 1 add-on so the actual buy-in should be multiplied by 3. For instance, to play the $3 re-buy on stars you should have a minimum $900 bankroll ($3 x 3 x 100 = $900). In reality you will often use more than 3x your buy-in so, again, this is a minimum. Proper bankroll management doesn't have to be difficult or constrict your growth as a poker player. In fact, it will surely only help your game as you grind from one level to the next. All of these guidelines should be seen as minimums really, although I think they're adequate for most micro-stakes players. However, once you start getting to more aggressive games and you begin to lose your edge, you should really become more conservative with your bankroll management. Although, by the time you get to those games, bankroll management will probably seem like second nature and you will likely naturally get tighter with your roll. Three final things to keep in mind: don't act on the temptation to move up too soon, don't worry about what level other people are playing, and remember there's no shame in moving down."Take care now and then.
- Mar 08, 11
I am always looking for resources to improve my game.
Here's a free poker school with exams to check your progress. Basic stuff.
http://www.myholdemtips.com/poker-school.aspx
I aced the first test.
Here's another poker school
It seems to be more extensive than the first school in this post.
http://www.pokerology.com/poker-school/texas-holdem/
there are more lessons in this school.
Bothe cover the basics
Take care now and then.
- Mar 02, 11
- Mar 02, 11
I started playing poker about five years ago. My wife got me started.
This go at poker has been my best. I have learned a ton. I have
I have not been playing every week since then. Busted out several
times and had to gather a bank roll to begin again. I have been
playing consistently since October 2009.
played about ~13,000 hands since I started Five years ago. ~9,000 of
those hands have been played since October of last year. Poker is a great way to learn alot about yourself.
I have learned that:
1 chasing straights and flushes are long shots, some longer than
others. There has to be at least 3 or more others in the pot to make
it profitable to try. Get in cheap.
2 Three of a kind can be a fantastic hand. A hidden set is always
better than tripps!
3 There is a lot to learn for a lifetime of play.
4 Winning some hands is not nearly as satisfying as leaving the table
with more money than you brought to the table. :-)
5 It takes discipline to learn the odds of making certain hands, to
pay attention to what the other players may have, to discern what the
other players may be thinking of your play and to stick to a strategy
long enough to reduce variance and discern if it is a good strategy.
6 Its fun to win.
7 Its more fun to have control of your own reactions and behavior. I like poker. I consider myself a beginning yellow belt at Holdem
Poker. In the Martial Arts it took me almost 7 years to get my first
black belt. I was consistent, focused, and worked at learning and
being able to perform at a high level.
I am working to apply the same Martial Arts lessons I learned about
courage, strategy, tactics, honor and perseverance over the last 32
years, of which I was actively training for about 29 years, to Poker. Any comments are welcome. Lonnie Lepp
[email protected]
